【本報消息】一場金融海嘯，不僅令投資者對金融產品有戒心，一度熱爆的金融專業課程亦被打入冷宮，投身金融業成了“不可能之任務”。金管局行政委員會主席丁連星昨在保險業招聘會表示，儘管國際金融及保險市場仍有一些問題待解決，希望澳人要對金融業長遠發展抱有信心。
via 澳門日報電子版.
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雖然這場金融危機的元兇並不是人壽保險產品, 但並不代表人壽保險業的經營現狀毫無敝疚. 其銷售手法所涉及的商業道德標準, 仍然是全球消費權益主義者所注視的問題.
不管這個行業現在賣的東西與以往是否不同, 從業員的稱謂是否跟以往不一樣, 經營者對待客戶利益的態度與角度如果仍然是一如以往, 行業的形象將始終是難以改變.
那些長期利用消費者的信息弱勢, 利用銷售人員的個人信用力及生野的奮鬥心智, 放棄嚴慬的專業道德守則, 在大部份無知的消費者身上攫取金錢, 以遂企業的利潤增長目標的投資者及經營者, 無論是換了一個甚麼名號, 最終亦會被這個信息時代的大潮所淘汰.
這將是他們將要面對的另一場海嘯……
American International Group’s sale of a minority stake in its Asian life insurance unit faces an uphill climb in a down market.
via AIG finding Asian assets a tough sell – International Herald Tribune.
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I think most people don’t know how to estimate AIA’s value and are making erroneous assessments of its worth.
The core element that contributes to AIA’s success is not anything related to its corporate structure or management virtuosity. It is the sales force. The sales operation, which has long been adopting a so-called success-oriented policy in training its salespeople, supports the marketing department effectively, making it possible for the company to realize many aggressive, though controversial, strategies in the market.
However, the sales force is very much an illusive entity in the sense that it may strive to protect its own worth sometimes by making disloyal moves. These people are grouped in big districts (teams). They move in herds. Once they find there is a better nest to hatch their eggs or a threat to its well-being, they will not hesitate to show a meek face to their existing master.
The risk of an empty nest could pose a lethal trap to bidders who act with a robust expectation.
“九月中金融海嘯席捲全球以來，各行業無一倖免。友邦保險澳門分行副總裁兼總經理馬竹豪表示，九月中至今三個月，該公司運作正常，祇有不足1%客戶斷保。“風高浪急”之際，該公司仍簽下7,555張新單，傳統型保單增長一倍。”
via 澳門日報電子版.
友邦AIA在其母公司風雨飄搖的景況下極力表現自己的業務能力企圖增強客戶對其之信心實在無可口非, 但讀者如果夠細心, 又明白一些行內的運作, 應該可以看出其中一些令人回味的地方.
譬如, 文中說到該公司九月至今保單增長7,555張, 那以該公司現有2000個代理人計算, 每人就是在這期間(三個月)完成不到4張的新單. 這個數字是多或少必須與行內其它公司比較才能知曉.
又譬如說該公司在”九至十一月入職的員工有 96位, 可見客戶和從業員都有信心”. 大家都知道, 這幾個月間不少企業都有裁減人員的情況, 這些被裁減的人員中部份會選擇保險行業作為暫時性的職業”中轉站”(等待環境好轉後再找一份固定的工作), 能夠在這種環境下增加這個數字的人員就代表客戶和從業員都對該公司有信心這種說法實在有點兒以偏蓋全, 文中亦未提及在這期間離職的人員數字, 尤其是在該公司在十一月份後(該公司在十一月計算年終花紅)選擇離職的人員數字!
該公司坦承其投資聯繫式業務的衰減, 但只強調了傳統保單的保費增長是110% (我相信是比去年同期吧, 文中沒有明確指明), 那倒底基數是多少? 投資聯繫式保單的減幅又是多少呢?
該公司又稱其”分紅保單的紅利率維持不變以酬謝客戶”, 行內人都明白, 紅利這種事根本是由保險公司操縱的玩兒, 今年多給你的不等於它不會在未來扣回來, 友邦這種形勢下保持今年的紅利率不變並不是一件甚麼值得令人欣喜的事, 只是一般不明白箇中玄妙的消費者才會覺得激動而已.
雖然, 友邦及當局都力稱該公司的財務穩健, 不會受到其倒楣的母公司所牽累, 但本人認為金融管理局實在有責任向消費者報導有關 AIG的實際狀況, 以令消費者更清晰自己的處境, 好讓他們在繼後的事件變化中有一個較明智的選擇. 理由是, 友邦之所以當初被批准執業牌照很大因素是因為其母公司的財務背景, 如今此因素不但不正面, 而且, 與一間沒有同樣背景的保險公司比較, 該公司明顯連結著結構性的風險, 集團經營上的決策始終會影響著其子公司的前景的變化, 理性的消費者實在有必要消楚這個事實.
有傳聞說, 友邦的部份股權將會賣給另一保險集團繼而在香港上市. 這對於持有分紅保單的客戶來說是好是壞不得而知, 但起碼要讓他們知悉他們的利益可能有所變化這個事實…
想了解多一點有關AIG事件及其發展的讀者可點擊閱讀此連結文章: http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/23/news/companies/AIG_150bailout_Loomis.fortune/index.htm
AIA出售计划不够明确，究竟要卖什么资产并不清楚。兼之AIG的情况仍不明朗，这也降低了交易的吸引力
【《财经网》专稿/记者 陈慧颖 温秀 沈乎】美国国际集团（AIG）宣布出售旗下子公司友邦保险（AIA）少数股权近一周后，中国的潜在买家们仍处于观望状态。中国保险业和银行业人士对《财经》记者表示，国内机构会对AIA的交易保持关注，但目前的一些事态发展降低他们对AIA的兴趣。
最近，一家向來以市場大哥大自詡的壽險公司（以下簡稱A公司）遇上意想不到的窘境，其向來依靠作為賣點的原本實力雄厚的集團母公司忽然財政陷入困境，差點兒要宣佈破產，最後幾乎要完全賣身當地政府始能保住殘命，但從此好境不再，面目全非。
作為集團公司子公司的A公司，在以往習慣踐踏同行，每次同行中有公司出現逆境，其旗下的業務員便會四出“爆料”（散發消息），力陳對手如何不妥，如“經營不善”、“前景堪虞”、“作風冒險”．．．等等。
記得當年有一間對手公司在香港經營稍有差池，A公司的某高層便大言不慚的在公司內部會議上向與會的營業員語帶譏諷的說恨不得把對手公司買起，免得它“累街坊”；又誇口自己的公司永遠都係大哥，不會有輸人的日子。
早兩、三年前，A公司的母公司還算是風調雨順，擴展迅速，在各大國際評級機構的財務評級中都取得最高評級，子公司的廣告宣傳中總以此為題，幾乎稱自己是買保險消費者的唯一選擇。相信也是羊群效應的原故，慕名投保的人的確不少。
可惜世事難料，後來母公司被所屬地方的司法當局揭發賬目存在造假，後來還牽涉入一些違規的商業行為，導致其總裁要被迫辭職，自此名聲便一落千丈，股價亦徐徐下滑。近日更受次貸業務所累，落得聲名狼藉，委曲求存的田地。
對於近日不少A公司的保戶考慮退保的問題，該公司的高層大派定心丸，力勸客戶無須憂慮；而政府有關官員亦“出口相助”，大叫市民安心，但我認為有些細節恐怕並未向市民詳實：
一、雖然子公司的業務暫時不受到母公司的財務影響，在本地區亦有監管機構監察它的資產狀況，其準備金亦超出應具的水平，對兌現保險賠償應該不成問題，但該公司所賣的保單常以分紅為餌，吸引不少對投資無甚常識的消費者購買作為所謂“儲蓄”工具，而分紅的多少並沒有保證，面對該公司往後的業務很大可能性要面臨萎縮的前景（有多少人還敢去買它的保單？），盈利能力存疑，所分紅利水平能否維持（而不是如讓公司的一名精算師所說，按該公司一貫政策制定。他們的一貫政策就是不會告訴保戶紅利如何“制定”。）確是未知之數？
二、假如母公司決定要將A公司賣盤，新接手的公司並沒有責任要維持現有的分紅水平，這一點監管當局也難干預，這一點是否應向消費者說明？
三、準備金是何定義，大部份公眾亦不了解，萬一到了極壞的情況，保戶的權益受保障的程度如何？這些都應該向大眾交代，讓公眾有一個清晰的資訊背景去衡量自己的決定。當局不應抱著“只要不出現人潮就萬事大吉”的心態，或者以為一切都在掌握之中。大部份情況下，中途退保都會對保戶造成損失，但在某種情況下不退保並不一定是聰明的抉擇，問題是保戶是否被告知真正的利害關係。
大部份本地區的投保人在選擇保險公司的時候，都會以該公司背後集團的實力作為信心的依賴。一株樹如果根部已經腐爛，再挺拔，再巨大也難逃倒塌的厄運；當年鐵達尼號也曾被以為永遠不可能沉沒，但結果．．．
本來這也是商業世界的平常事，不足為奇，只不過目睹A公司那些曾經一度意氣風發的營業員今天要親歷自己訕笑過的對手的窘境，實在覺得可憐可笑．．．
AIG’s complex investment strategy is to blame for her fall.
AIG今天的敗局其實與三鹿奶粉公司的下場很相似. 都曾經是名振一時的知名企業, 都曾經是表面令人感到無比安全, 卻都突如其來的被有問題的原材料弄跨, 只不過一個是被粉飾了的次按債券, 另一個是被混了三聚氰胺的牛奶而已. 在這些故事的戲劇性後面, 隱藏著不少值得深思的商業倫理. 如果我說大家可以從那些閃閃亮的獎牌奬盃上面看到根源, 你可能感到有點迷惑, 但只要你仔細了解一下美式人壽保險推銷員的意識形態, 再深入探討一下美國次按危機的源頭, 你不難明白, 這些企業是間接敗在自己的所倡導的所謂”成功”文化下面……
AIG havoc
By Tony Munroe
HONG KONG (Reuters) – American International Group Inc, thrown a $20 billion lifeline by New York state officials, came under fresh pressure for survival on Tuesday as ratings agencies downgraded the insurer’s debt and the global financial sector meltdown spread.
Asian markets, many of them closed for a holiday on Monday, tumbled as investors absorbed the weekend’s dramatic events on Wall Street, where Lehman Brothers (LEH.P) filed for bankruptcy protection and rival Merrill Lynch (MER.N) agreed to be sold to Bank of America (BAC.N) for $50 billion.
Shares in AIG (AIG.N) plunged nearly 61 percent on Monday and the U.S. Federal Reserve hired investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS.N) to review options for what was once the world’s biggest insurer — which has lost 92 percent of its value this year — a person familiar with the situation said on Monday.
British bank Barclays Plc (BARC.L), which over the weekend pulled out of rescue talks for Lehman, was reported by the Wall Street Journal to be in talks to buy large portions of Lehman.
“We do not comment on market rumors,” said Angie Tang, a Barclays spokeswoman in Hong Kong.
AIG’s ratings downgrade could force it to post more collateral and nullify insurance contracts, possibly setting in motion a chain reaction that could threaten its survival.
“While regulators allowed it to tap its subsidiaries for cash, this will not suffice beyond the short term, and its troubles risk losses for its counterparties,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at CFC Seymour in Hong Kong, wrote in a research note.
Top U.S. savings and loan institution Washington Mutual Inc (WM.N) saw its rating cut to “junk” status by Standard & Poor’s amid concerns about mortgage losses, causing its shares to slide in after-hours trading after a 27 percent drop in the regular session.
EYES ON AIG
Moody’s Investors Service cut AIG’s rating to A2 from Aa3, a two-notch downgrade. S&P lowered the rating to A-minus from AA-minus, a three-peg reduction, and Fitch Ratings reduced its standing to A from AA-minus, a two-notch cut.
AIG’s ratings are still investment grade, although all three agencies said more downgrades could follow.
“AIG seems to be the next guy on the chopping block,” said Tom Sowanick, chief investment officer at Clearbrook Financial LLC in Princeton, New Jersey.
Again seeking a private solution to Wall Street’s woes, the Fed had asked JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) to explore arranging $70-$75 billion in loans to support AIG, among other financing options, another person familiar with the situation said.
AIG turned to the Fed late on Sunday after failed talks with several buyout firms and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N). The company has also said it was exploring asset sales.
MARKETS TUMBLE
Asian stocks tumbled across the board, with Tokyo (.N225) down more than 5 percent at a three-year low. Japanese government bond futures jumped by their daily limit of three full points as investors fled to safe havens, while Japan’s central bank said it would strive to maintain stability in financial markets.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was off nearly 7 percent, while Seoul’s main index (.KS11) dropped more than 6 percent.
“The second leg of the subprime crisis has begun,” Jun Kwang-woo, head of South Korea’s Financial Services Commission told reporters. “It could be painful but a recovery, once in place, may be rapid.”
U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday, with the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) dropping more than 500 points, or 4.4 percent, as Wall Street had its worst day since markets reopened after the September 2001 attacks.
There was speculation that Wall Street’s worsening meltdown could prompt the Fed to act. U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose sharply on Monday, reflecting the higher prospects for a rate cut at or before Tuesday’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The iTRAXX Asia ex-Japan high-yield index, a key measure of risk aversion, widened by over 50 basis points from Monday’s levels to a record 700/750 bps. The equivalent investment -grade index widened by 20 bps to 195/210 bps, also a record.
Darkening one of the few bright spots from the weekend’s mayhem, Bank of America — which would surpass Citigroup Inc (C.N) as the country’s largest bank by assets with the planned takeover of Merrill — saw its shares plunge by 21 percent.
“The concern for Bank of America is the debt that they are acquiring,” said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in San Francisco.
“Secondly, is it too big a purchase? They are dealing with Countrywide right now. Did they need to be dealing with this as well? There’s some concern they might have bit more than they could chew.”
The state of New York, where AIG is based, did its best to bolster the stricken insurer with a complex asset swap giving it a $20 billion lifeline, but its longer-term rescue depended on additional funding.
The cost to insure the debt of AIG also surged on Monday. AIG’s credit default swaps jumped to 33.5 percent of the sum insured paid upfront, plus annual premiums of 5 percent for five years, from 13 percent upfront on Friday, according to Markit Intraday.
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