AIG finding Asian assets a tough sell – International Herald Tribune

American International Group’s sale of a minority stake in its Asian life insurance unit faces an uphill climb in a down market.

via AIG finding Asian assets a tough sell – International Herald Tribune.

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I think most people don’t know how to estimate AIA’s value and are making erroneous assessments of its worth.

The core element that contributes to AIA’s success is not anything related to its corporate structure or management virtuosity. It is the sales force.  The sales operation, which has long been adopting a so-called success-oriented policy in training its salespeople, supports the marketing department effectively, making it possible for the company to realize many aggressive, though controversial,  strategies in the market.

However, the sales force is very much an illusive entity in the sense that it may strive to protect its own worth sometimes by making disloyal moves.  These people are grouped in big districts (teams). They move in herds.  Once they find there is a better nest to hatch their eggs or a threat to its well-being, they will not hesitate to show a meek face to their existing master.

The risk of an empty nest could pose a lethal trap to bidders who act with a robust expectation.

He passed away with dignity.

My nephew finally passed away last night in the hospital after fighting against the tumor on his own for so many days.  He had been admitted only when he was found unable to stand up again at home.

I am not regretful about the alternative therapy I have encouraged him to, though it has proved to be a scam at last.  My nephew had eventually lived up to his bravery and responsibility by upholding any opportunity of recovery and remaining tough throughout the last lag of his life.

He had lived a lonely and  apparently unhappy life owing to his unsocial character and had often been reprimanded by the family (his mother and younger brother) for his laziness and financial troubles thus incurred.

However, he was a good friend and a loving cousin to my two daughters who he had watched grow-up.  We all miss him.

And I believe,  he has left with dignity.

The Lapse of Friendship

Sometimes friendship may diminish not necessarily out of prejudice or anything malnignant between two people.  It could that happen just because the two choose to depart from each other somewhere on the path of life. Kei and I are such a case.

He had remained as a taxi driver and I had detoured to a tertiary profession over a period of  20 years or so, during which we had seldom seen each other on each other’s track.  When we went out together last night, the sentiments of our common past became the favorite topic over the dining table.  Both of us understood that things were a bit different from the old days when we had shared our views with each other all the time and behaved freely towards each other on disagreements that did pop up here and there.

Dispite this subtle strangeness, we still acted, at least with a tacit propansity,  as though we had been very close and nothing had ever changed.  I enjoyed this reunion and I could see that he enjoyed it too.  After all, I believe that Kei and I will still be the best of friends in our hearts.

He is super, a super-liar!

the Manhattan federal court house in New York January 14, 2009. …

BOSTON (Reuters) – Bernie Madoff’s investment fund may never have executed a single trade, industry officials say, suggesting detailed statements mailed to investors each month may have been an elaborate mirage in a $50 billion fraud.

Chinese Idol Worship

The God of Loyalty

In the heart of the Chinese people, General Guan is always a god of loyalty. He is enshrined in homes, shops, street corners as well as temples. The good guys worship him. The bad guys worship him too, even more. I guess it is the same with any culture that people long for protection from the Saints they adore in any act of life, good or evil.

Game Theory in Daily Life

My doomed nephew had already received 5 sessions of Chi-kung treatment for his liver cancer when I accompanied him for the sixth.  I had planned to challenge the master against the apparently worsening condition of my nephew. To the contrary, I ended up encouraging my nephew to full-heartily accept the service after some word-fights with the lofty practitioner.

He skillfully sided away all my criticism with arguments implying this was the only chance  for my nephew if he ever wanted to survive, and all the symptoms that we had found disagreeing were just insignificant and caused only by non-compliance to his instructions  on the part of the patient.

“Your nephew were already dead, if not for the treatments.” He almost shouted.

In fact, he was not totally buffing.  Though my nephew had been certified dying in a short time by the hospital a month ago, he still looked quite lively and strong, walking on his own and eating normally.  You can’t  tell whether he was recovering or not with these signs, in spite of his bulging stomach and withering body shape.

In order not to diminish hope for my nephew, I decided to bet on the situation and pretended (with doubts myself) I had believed what the master had explained and convinced my nephew to do the same, reasoning that there was nothing more to lose for this and he should focus all his energy in co-operation with the master during the treatments.

Did I do it right?

May God bless my nephew!

經濟預測與先知

最近, 由於金融海嘯的發生, 不少人對經濟預測這回事忽然產生了態度上的改變.  有些人以往一直很相信權威, 今天卻再不會對某些財經專家的言論輕易採信; 因為這些所謂的專家在去年年頭的時候都沒有預測到這次危機發生的可能性. 相反, 卻有另外一些”專家”卻在這個時候給人捧到天上來了. 奇特的是這裡頭有的不單是財經界的人士, 居然還包括有測卜星相的術士. 香港某個電視台就做了一個調查, 結果發現有幾位著名的星相師在去年年頭的時候已很大程度上預測了去年發生的大事, 如四川地震, 雪災等, 其中兩位還預測了重大金融危機發生的可能性, 可謂獨具慧眼!

對於大部份一般百姓, 世界經濟以至美國本土的政治環境變化等問題都是深奧難明, 莫測高深的事情, 當然不可能為今次這麼巨大的事件作出預測. 但金融世界中不缺的是頂尖級的財經專家, 經濟學者, 他們的預視能力卻不如一兩個占卜的術士, 聽起來真令人發笑.

也有一位中國”作者”在今次危機中一舉成名, 據說是危機發生之前已經在其編著的一本書藉中提出”兩房”的危機. 如今此人被眾人(尤其是中國人)奉為智者, 到處被邀演講, 更廣為媒體引述其熠熠言論. 此人更為今年的世界經濟形勢作大膽預測, 認為金融危機的高潮還沒到來, 而嚴重情況將會激增數倍云.

其實, 如果有留意美國經濟發展的讀者都會知道在美國次按危機發生之前其實已有不少學者發表著作討論著美國整體債務經濟的問題, 而且都憂心著這個泡沫爆破的可能性. 這一派學者在不同的媒體, 場合都曾經發表過文章, 言論. 如果將這些學者的觀點和發現綜合, 稍加修繕就變成自己的言論, 這種行為實在不敢恭維. 金融危機發生的必然性其實早就有人預言, 而只不過有些人將其發生的偶然性誇大及利用以遂個人目的而造成一種神機妙算的效果而已.  這個預言家之所以能夠成名也很大程度上是一種偶然性的結果.

這些”預言家”姑不論是取巧還是真的”有料”, 還算是作個預言, 最令人可笑的還是那些大放馬後炮的人. 如今只要隨手拿起一份報章或者雜誌, 都幾乎可以在其中找到借金融海嘯為題而大做文章的內容, 但大部份除了是東抄西改, 拾人牙慧, 人云亦云之外, 實在難得看到有獨到見解之作.

有興趣這個話題的朋友不妨閱讀一下以下幾本相關的書藉:

Bad Money – by Kevin Philips

Black Swan — by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Greed, Fraud and Ignorance: A Subprime Insider’s Look at the Mortgage Collapse — by Richard Bitney

創業大道

偶然在書店遇到一位一直在創業的友人, 差不多二十年前我的這位朋友已經開始經營布料貿易生意, 那時候正值本澳的製衣業興旺, 他與友人就這樣撈到第一桶金. 後來, 工業北移, 他也改變經營策略, 兼營一間在國內設立的製衣廠, 每天來回奔波於兩地之間, 也算是順應著時勢保持著企業的盈利. 但不竟大陸的逐漸開放與及與國際貿易世界的接軌, 政策的改變使他的這間小工場亦日漸失去競爭力, 再加上可能有些其他個人原因吧, 最終他又再次轉業, 在本地一個街區開了一家時裝店. 這是在今次遇上他之前我知道他的最後一次創業事件. 由於這位朋友一直給我的印象都是聰明睿智, 頭腦靈活, 而且富有魄力, 對於他的每一舉措, 我都心中悠然感到佩服, 每次都認為他的選擇是正確的, 而且一定會有一個成功的結果. 今天遇上, 自然又再想了解他的動向. 果然, 他又有轉變了. 但今次的新嘗試卻令我有點錯愕, 也令我有點為他擔心.

“我已經再沒有經營時裝店了.” 他說這句話時候的神情讓我感覺到一絲無奈, 我雖然在心中極力說服自己向相反方向想, 但很明顯, 他的表情表明那個生意沒有成功.

“那現在是做甚麼大買賣啦?” 我深信我這句半說笑式的問句是一句恭維的說話.

“沒有, 我在攪股票的事.”

“你是說在炒股嗎?”

“是, 掙點小錢吧.” 他語帶謙意, 但蓋不住他認真的神情.

“噢, 那你一定有甚麼必勝的秘技吧?” 我當時真的就是這樣想的, 雖然, 我壓根兒不相信有這等事.

“沒有, 我在玩一些衍生工具而已.”

可能是我感到了一種恐懼, 又不想掃他的興, 我就隨便跟他寒喧幾句就道別了.

回家以後, 心裡那種不安的感覺沒有消失, 總覺得這位友人今次的冒險是出乎我的意料, 當然我希望他能夠憑藉這種玩意賺錢, 但無論如何, 他這次的抉擇已經使他長期在我心目中, 那個踏實的創業者模範形象出現了瑕玼……

2009元旦日的澳門街景

在市政廣場的聖誔裝飾一景

難得的好天氣, 拿起相機到外面到處走走, 拍了好幾張街景, 心情好極了.